NGX Daily Market Summary – Thursday, November 27, 2025

The NGX All Share Index edged up 0.12% to close at 143,064.57, extending its strong 38.82% YTD run. Today's session, however, was marked by a substantial -66.54% drop in market turnover to ₦11.07B, alongside a sharply lower trading volume of 300.37M (from 669.06M yesterday), indicating some caution—or perhaps exhaustion—among market participants. Despite lighter activity, advancers outpaced decliners at 1.5x breadth, boosted by outsized moves in several mid- and small-cap names. Top gainer Ikeja Hotel closed limit-up, just as Linkage Assurance sold off hard. Large volume spikes in both gainers and select other stocks suggest churning beneath the calm index surface, with technical breakouts and breakdowns apparent in both bullish and bearish corners.

Key Market Breadth & Trends

• Market Breadth: 36 advancers vs 24 decliners (breadth ratio: 1.50x). Bullish skew suggests underlying optimism, though fewer rising volumes (51 up, 91 down) hint at weakening momentum below the surface.
• Turnover Caution: Trading value plunged 66.54% from yesterday to ₦11.07B—possible evidence of "risk-off," profit-taking, or waiting for catalysts.
• Volume Divergence: Despite price advances, only about one-third of stocks saw rising volumes, hinting at fewer high-conviction buys and possible thin liquidity on up-moves.
• Naira Watch: The Naira slid -0.02% to 1,455/$—minimal, but part of a worrisome longer FX trend.

Top 5 Gainers

• IKEJA HOTEL: Limit-up move, 518% volume spike vs 90D average. RSI at 74.5 (overbought), bullish MACD. Caution: hot momentum, but potentially due for pullback.
• NCR: RSI at 99.4—extremely stretched. Insane 893.6% YTD run; continued technical breakout with momentum, but watch for exhaustion soon.
• LEARN AFRICA: Oversold RSI (20.4); today's pop likely relief bounce, not yet a trend reversal.

Top 5 Losers

• CHAMPION: RSI 44.2 with negative MACD. Despite a negative YTD (-9.85%), RSI neither oversold nor at risk. Weak technicals.
• VETGRIF30: Hefty drop puts it near YTD lows; technicals show potential further downside even at high RSI (65.8).
• UPDC: Continues its YTD decline, breaking key moving averages—the pain isn't over.

Bullish & Bearish Technical Patterns

• Bullish Momentum Watch:
  • IKEJA HOTEL—RSI 74.5, bullish MACD, price above 15D & 50D MAs, +10% move, strong volume surge: Strong uptrend, but overbought—pullback likely before next leg up.
  • NCR—RSI 99.4 (!), huge 893% YTD, technicals all green: Caution for reversal risk at these levels.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • STERLINGNG, VETGRIF30, UPDC PLC—below 15DMA, negative MACD, plus poor YTD or multi-day returns: Watch for further selling pressure.
• Notable Overlaps: IKEJAHOTEL appears as both unusual volume and top gainer; VETGRIF30, STERLINGNG, UPDC in both top losers, YTD losers, and bearish technicals—implies strong negative conviction.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREW: RSI at 44.2 (neutral), bearish MACD, and -9.85% YTD but not yet oversold—may attract value hunters soon if selling persists.
• LEARN AFRICA: RSI at 20.4 (deeply oversold), but up +9.96% today—a snap-back rally, but unless buying is sustained could quickly reverse.
• VETGRIF30 ETF: RSI above 65 despite multi-session sharp losses; high volatility implies potential for a violent short-covering bounce.
• MTNN: Crossing above 15DMA with moderate gains yet mixed RSI/action—still among most-traded for both retail and institutional, but watch for leadership role under threat if index weakens.

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend–Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunity Spotting)

• LINKASSURE offers a 5.56% yield with low beta—potential defensive play, but technicals suggest caution after sharp jump.
• High-yield insurance stocks increasingly attract yield-seeking, risk-averse investors.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for 20.17% of institutional gross trade value, topping both institutional & retail trade count leaderboards. Despite this, price -0.50%; institutionals may be distributing (selling), or block trades distorting signals.
• UBA, MTNN, GTCO, ACCESSCORP also absorbed heavy institutional flows with mixed-to-negative price action—potential caution signal for sector or broad market.

Trading Activity Insights

• Institutions delivered the lion’s share of value (88%) and volume (64%) despite just 33.5% of trade count—i.e., average institutional trade size is substantially larger.
• Retail trades dominate number of deals, but not impact; smaller, dabbling orders.
• Patterns: Both retail and institutional favored ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, GTCO, UBA. These stocks are now highly liquid, but also prone to institutional-driven swings; traders should track block activity and be wary of "herd moves".
• On days like today, institutional clustering in banking stocks can signal sector legs up or prepare for short-term distribution; volumes falling but activity high suggests smart money positioning.

Top 5 Institutional Most Traded

1. ZENITHBANK: -0.50% (large trade, price down—distribution?)
2. UBA: +0.28%
3. MTNN: +1.06%
4. GTCO: +0.12%
5. ACCESSCORP: +0.96%

Top 5 Retail Most Traded

1. ZENITHBANK
2. ACCESSCORP
3. MTNN
4. GTCO
5. UBA

YTD Top Gainers & Losers: Technical & Sentiment Trends

• Gainers (NCR, IkejaHotel): RSI flagged as extremely overbought; short-term correction likely, but sustainable multi-month trend in doubt unless backed by new fundamentals.
• Losers (UPDC, VETGRIF, MEYER): Persistent sell-offs, some nearing oversold—potential for relief rallies, but trend is still your friend on the downside.
• LEARN AFRICA, MEYER, CHAMPION: Technical bounces from extreme pessimism. Swing-trading potential.

Key Opportunities & Cautions

• Trade Opportunity: VERITASKAP and LINKASSURE showing strong bullish technicals and high dividend yields with relatively low betas—suitable for medium-term accumulation or tactical yield hunting.
• Caution: IKEJA HOTEL and NCR (NIGERIA)—volatile, overbought, crowded momentum; consider scaling out or stop-loss discipline if long.
• Banking Sector: Under significant institutional churn. Banks (ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA) see heavy two-way flows but lack price upside, suggesting smart money hesitancy or sector rotation.
• Bearish Momentum: UPDC, VETGRIF30, STERLINGNG are short candidates or avoids until clear evidence of a bottom emerges.
• ETF Weakness: Persistent losses in VETGRIF30/VETINDETF confirm waning risk appetite in broad NGX-linked baskets.

Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum chasers: Be wary of "crowded trades" like NCR/IkejaHotel—extremely high RSI is a sell signal for swing traders.
• Defensive seekers: LINKASSURE, SOVRENINS—strong yield, low beta, technical cross up—pick on minor pullbacks.
• Bargain hunters: Keep watch for volume reversals in deep YTD losers like CHAMPION, MEYER, UPDC.
• Institutional shadowing: Track block trades in big banks; mean reversion likely after profit-taking flush is done.
• ETF-focused strategies: Avoid fresh longs for now; monitor for bottoming patterns.